A short-term scientific model shows that the Western Cape is very close to its COVID-19 mortality peak.
According to the Pandemic Data and Analytics formula, the province could reach a peak mortality rate between 23 June and 7 July.
During this time, it’s expected that the maximum number of deaths in the province of around 44 to 59 deaths per day will occur.
Member of the Pandemic Data and Analytics, Piet Streicher, said that the model was based on, amongst others, the number of confirmed cases, number of ICU beds occupied and number of people in hospital.
“The number of confirmed cases has been pretty flat over the last 14 days, it’s around 1,400 cases a day. Deaths are around 42 a day and going up very slowly at the moment at about one extra death a day.”
Streicher said that the decline in the number of COVID-19 deaths recorded following the peak would be much slower.
“It ramps up quickly and climbs slowly. The trend is consistent worldwide and we can expect to see the same, so while the hospitals filled up very quickly they’ll start emptying from the peak but it will be a gradual decline.”