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Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Will be Hit by China’s Slowing Economy

A one percentage point decline in China’s real GDP growth rate leads to about 0.25 percentage point decline in in sub-Saharan Africa’s total GDP growth within a year, IMF economists including Hany Abdel-Latif wrote in a report. Oil exporters would experience the largest impact, it added. China’s economic growth has slowed in recent years due to a property downturn and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with long term forecasts predicting annual growth of around 4% over the remainder of this decade. That’s down from about 7% in the decade before the pandemic. Negative impacts on the region from a slowing China would be transmitted largely through exports of commodities such as oil, the IMF said. China is sub-Saharan Africa’s largest export partner, buying one fifth of the region’s exports. Non oil-exporting countries would see a smaller growth loss, of 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth from a one percentage point growth slowdown in China, the report said.