The Springboks cross the Tasman Sea cock-a-hoop after their victory at Carisbrook. Cock-a-hoop has always been a fatal place for South African rugby to be as overconfidence has ever been their besetting sin.

Still cock-a-hoop can fall short of overconfidence and produce the sort of confidence that breeds victories.

The Springboks had it in 1998 and there are signs of it again now — an attitude which says loudly: We are never beaten.

For the Springboks it is a great opportunity. If they fly home across the Indian Ocean with two away wins they will have travelled a long way to winning the Tri-Nations Cup for the first time since 2004.

For the rested Wallabies it is the start of their journey, a chance to lay a foundation to put the cup on for the first time since 2001. Win and they will go back east with optimism that they can beat the beaten All Blacks.

The Wallabies hop across the Nullabor Plain also confident for they have just smashed the French to their heaviest defeat ever. They beat the Irish, perhaps more easily than the All Blacks did. They have every reason to head to the land of the Black Swan with confidence, and they have historically not been guilty of overconfidence.

Perth a home away from home

Perth is a remote place for many Australians — the other fringe of the continent. But the Super 14 is accustoming them to playing at Subiaco's deceptive oval. But then that is true, too, of the Springboks.

The Stormers played there and won well; the Bulls played there and lost. The Waratahs played there and won; the Brumbies played there and lost. There is not much in that.

There is also not one at national level — four matches with two close wins for the Springboks, one close win for the Wallabies and one draw. In the four matches South Africa have scored 76 points and Australia have scored 76 points.

It suggests that things are too delicately poised for overconfidence by either side. Both sides have new coaches, both trying to encourage and different, more expansive game.

Play it as you see it, Robbie Deans and Peter de Villiers say, and their teams seem cheerful about that approach.

The Wallabies, surely, have the men of skill and experience to shuck off the shackles of patterned play and play what is in front of them. The Springboks, more and more, are doing that. Even against the black might of New Zealand in their House of Pain they created better scoring opportunities to score tries and then scored two of them.

The Wallabies' avowed intent is to play in phases, as they have done for years. They will need to do it well to break the defence of a side that can tackle by the hundred and still be ready for more.

Kicking may decide it. Kicking had a big influence in Wellington and Dunedin. In both those matches the All Blacks scored more penalty points than the Springboks — not that there was much difference between the two sides in the penalty count but because they have Daniel Carter who missed just one in Wellington, while the Springboks missed one in Wellington and two in Dunedin.

The Wallabies have Stirling Mortlock and Matt Giteau to boot for them, two accurate and experienced kickers. Butch James has proved accurate for the Springboks and they have the biggest boot of them all — François Steyn — erratic but frighteningly lengthy.

Monty left out

What the Springboks do not have this time is the left boot of Percy Montgomery which was so valuable in Dunedin. Much-capped, steady Montgomery is not even on the bench.

If the Springboks can again scrum the way they did in Dunedin the Wallaby front row could find the going hard. Here the performances of the rookie South African hookers, Schalk Brits and Adriaan Strauss, could be crucial for they face a good and strong one in Stephen Moore.

The front rows' performances will affect those of the loose trios. That should be a rugged scrap. South Africa could well win the tight forward contest which may set Juan Smith and Pierre Spies running. With three front row replacements, South Africa are obviously looking to dominate there and tall Andries Bekker will join Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Burger, Smith and Pierre Spies to give Brits the best line-out targets in the world.

Players to watch: People get excited when the ball heads to Lote Tuqiri, but Peter Hynes may just be the more effective player, running straighter and with greater power. He is new but he has go. Schalk Brits who gets all over the place, a great player form broken play though his dancing on the spot is not always productive. He is new but he has go. The same is true of deceptively strong Adam Ashley-Cooper at fullback — always so hard to pull down. He is likely to run a lot as is brave Conrad Jantjes for South Africa. Of course you will watch Matt Giteau, George Smith, Schalk Burger, Bryan Habana, Victor Matfield, high-stepping Stirling Mortlock and a host of other star players in each team. One of the stars who has not been shining so brightly lately is Juan Smith who may just evoke interest for that very reason.

Head to Head: The battle of the halfbacks could be most interesting — in-form, multi-skilled, confident Matt Giteau against ardent, abrasive, much underestimated Butch James at flyhalf and at scrumhalf that live, combative ball of energy called Ricky Januarie against tall, strong, fast Luke Burgess. Burgess must know that his size and speed will be no proof against Januarie's harassment. The loose forward contest could be good — Juan Smith against Rocky Elsom, athletic Pierre Spies against battering Wycliff Palu and the renewal of the ancient warfare between Schalk Burger and George Smith. And when changes are made on will come elegant Ryan Kankowski and grafting Phil Waugh.

Ooh, there's a lot to look forward to on Saturday night.

Recent results:

2007: Australia won 25-17 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2007: South Africa won 22-19 at Newlands
2006: South Africa won 24-16 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2006: Australia won 20-18 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2006: Australia won 49-0 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2005: South Africa won 22-19 at Subiaco Oval, Perth
2005: South Africa won 22-16 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2004: South Africa won 23-19 at Kings Park Stadium, Durban
2004: Australia won 30-26 at Subiaco Oval, Perth
2003: Australia won 29-9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2003: South Africa won 26-22 at Newlands

Prediction: With one out of two so far, confidence is wobbly for it does not get any easier but if the Springboks can really stay humble and focussed as Peter de Villiers has assured us they will be, if they can keep euphoria in check, then we predict that the Boks will beat the Wallabies by more than eight points.

Teams:

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Hugh McMeniman, 19 Phil Waugh, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Drew Mitchell.

South Africa: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 François Steyn, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Enrico Januarie, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Gürthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Tendai Mtawarira, 18 Brian Mujati, 19 Andries Bekker, 20 Ryan Kankowski, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Peter Grant.

Date: Saturday, 19 July
Kick-off: 6.05pm (10.05am GMT)
Venue: Subiaco Oval, Perth
Expected weather conditions: Overcast with a 20% chance of rain, high of 16°C dropping to 4°C and a light breeze
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand), Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
TMO: Garrat Newman (New Zealand)

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