Eleven weeks and ten games gone, and just three games to go before the semifinals are set in stone. That is the reality of the Super 14 as we approach Week 12.

What seemed like a foregone conclusion before, suddenly seems quite unlikely, and vice versa in some cases after the past weekend's results.

The Sharks' plight becomes more desperate with the sight of the Crusaders in their path, while the Brumbies seem to have not read the script as their young transitional side keeps on winning.

Nine teams remain in contention for the play-offs, and four of them (Sharks, Chiefs, Hurricanes and Stormers) are bunched within one point of one another, occupying positions three to six on the points table.

It's been said the past few weeks, but it is even more true now: there is no room for mistakes now. A loss will most probably be the end for any one of these teams.

At the very least, it will mean that their destiny is out of their hands, and they will have to rely on higher ranked teams losing in the last two rounds.

Let's look into our crystal ball and see how the weekend might unfold!

Friday, 2 May

Crusaders vs Sharks
AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 19.35 (07.35 GMT)

The 2008 Sharks are looking more and more like the Titanic — both looked unsinkable early in the voyage, but once the goods hit the fan, it took a very short space of time to sink without a trace.

The only difference is that the Sharks still have a chance to jump into a lifeboat.

Is this really the nucleus of the side that was so desperately unlucky to lose the 2007 Final? The expectations were that the Sharks would go from strength to strength this year.

Fair enough, they did cruise along in second place for most of the campaign, but that position was largely due to their defence, which has been solid until now. There is a feeling that they have managed to fly high on the log without playing very well at any time.

The statistic that reveals most about the Sharks, is the 'points for' column. It might come as a surprise to many that the Sharks are the second worst team in terms of scoring — only the Lions, in 14th place, have scored less points this season.

It proves the fact that the Sharks have disguised their lack of creativity and penetration by employing a hitherto unparalleled defence.

Their current problem is that the famed defence is starting to crumble. After being so miserly, the Sharks rearguard suddenly collapsed, conceding seven tries in their last two games. That number stands in stark contrast to the rest of the season — the Durbanites conceded less than a try per game before April.

The reality is that the Sharks are now in deep trouble, despite previously looking like certainties for a home semifinal, and they simply have to win on Friday if they are to keep their play-off destiny within their own grasp.

They have the unenviable task of facing the Crusaders in Christchurch, a venue as close to a fortress as you're ever likely to get in rugby. The Christchurch team have won 31 out of their last 32 home games in Super rugby!

To make matters worse for the Sharks, the Cantabrians welcome back star centre Casey Laulala after recovering from a concussion. This will put extra pressure on the underperforming Sharks midfield, which is still without the services of the injured Brad Barritt.

The Sharks centre pairings have not fired this season, and their inefficiency probably accounts for the Sharks' lack of scoring opportunities.

The KwaZulu-Natalians also look quite thin in the flyhalf department, especially after Fred Michalak has been ruled out for the season.

Ruan Pienaar is the man who slots into No.10, and he can expect to be thoroughly tested by the 'Saders loose forwards, not to mention talented opposite number Stephen Brett.

Leon MacDonald will be looking to keep the Sharks back three guessing with his attacking style, which he usually mixes up well with good tactical kicks and high bombs.

For the Sharks, question marks remain over the fitness of skipper Johann Muller. His exclusion could well turn out to be the final straw, especially in light of fellow Springbok Bismarck du Plessis' injury woes ruling him out of this match.

The only positives that the Sharks will have to cling to, is the knowledge that the 'Saders are beatable — the Chiefs showed that. It's just not clear whether such an unlikely deed is possible at the AMI Stadium.

Prediction: The signs are not good for the Sharks. Even if they play better than they have all season, it might still not be enough against a rugby force of nature. Crusaders by 11.

Recent results:
2007: Sharks won 27-26, Durban
2006: Crusaders won 22-20, Timaru

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 Richard McCaw (captain), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ross Filipo, 19 George Whitelock, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i,  21 Hamish Gard, 22 Caleb Ralph.

Sharks: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Waylon Murray, 12 Francois Steyn, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9  Rory Kockott, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 AJ Venter / Jean Deysel, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johann Muller (captain)/AJ Venter, 4 Albert van den Burg , 3 BJ Botha, 2 Craig Burden, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Skipper Badenhorst, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Jean Deysel /Alistair Hargreaves, 19 Keegan Daniel, 20 Andries Strauss, 21 Henno Mentz, 22 Adrian Jacobs.

Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Brett Bowden (Australia), Josh Noonan (New Zealand)
Television match official: Kane McBride (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Kim Eichmann (New Zealand)

Reds vs Blues
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 19.40 (09.40 GMT)

In no way do I intend any disrespect to the Reds — on the contrary, they have exceeded my and many other expectations this year. They would have been a popular preseason pick to end the tournament at the bottom of the log, especially after the Bulls spanked them so memorably at Loftus last year.

But the Blues will see this match as a massive lifeline for their semifinal hopes, slim though they may be.

And in their current situation, they will probably be happy to be facing the Reds in this must-win match.

The Blues of course started the season so brightly, but fell away severely in the second half. It must be noted however that they came close to putting one past the Crusaders last weekend, pushing the Red and Blacks all the way to the end, and losing by only four points in the end.

That result will have brought some belief back to David Nucifora's men, and they have shown a willingness to slug it out in order to regain the fluid, destructive form we all know they are capable of.

Sometimes it only takes a touch of inspiration to get a team firing again. For the Blues, that time is now, and they certainly have the players to provide that spark. Their team is certainly littered with gifted individuals.

The Reds have lost back row forward John Roe to injury — he is replaced by teenager Scott Higginbotham.

They do have wing Digby Ioane back in the starting XV, after a very impressive stint last week against the Chiefs.

For the Blues, Anthony Tuitavake shone last week at outside centre, and coach Nucifora has decided to give him another chance there. The hugely promising Benson Stanley has been replaced by another potential superstar in 'Ice' Toeava, who has been sub-par thus year.

Toeava gets another chance though, and he and Tuitavake will be facing Berrick Barnes and the in-form Morgan Turinui, who will certainly be testing their defensive capabilities.
Isa Nacewa stays at flyhalf, while Nick Carter keeps the No.15 jersey. Nucifora clearly thinks the positional swap has worked, and both players are comfortable with either position.

The Blues pack seems as powerful as ever, but captain Troy Flavell will have to bring the best out of himself, before his men will follow. Flavell's attitude has been suspect at times, and he has been seen hissing at referees, and generally behaving petulantly.

That spirit will not drag his squad into the semifinals, especially considering the enormity of the task that awaits them.

One last interesting bit of info is that the Blues' trips to Brisbane usually end in tears. They have only won their once in Super Rugby — a narrow 21-20 win in 2006.

Prediction: The Reds will be no pushovers, but they have nothing left to play for this season, unlike the Blues, who have to win to retain that slim chance of a semi. With that motivation in mind, I call the Blues to win by 15 points.

Recent results:
2007: Blues won 38-13, Auckland
2006: Blues won 21-20, Brisbane

Teams:

Reds: 15 Clinton Schifcofske, 14 Digby Ioane, 13 Morgan Turinui, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Peter Hynes, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 David Croft, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Van Humphries, 3 Dayna Edwards, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Coutts.
Replacements: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Rodney Blake, 18 Ed O'Donoghue, 19 Poutasi Luafutu, 20 Will Genia, 21 Charlie Fetoai, 22 Brando Va'aulu

Blues: 15 Nick Evans, 14 David Smith, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Isaia Toeava, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Isa Nacewa, 9 Taniela Moa, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Troy Flavell (captain), 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Nick White, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Kurtis Haiu, 19 Justin Collins, 20 Danny Lee, 21 Benson Stanley, 22 Ben Atiga.

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Touch judges: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Geoff Acton (Australia)
Television match official: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)
Assessor: Scott Young (Australia)

Cheetahs vs Highlanders
Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein, 19.10 (17.10 GMT)

The battle for 12th place takes place at Vodacom Park when basement dwellers the Cheetahs and the Highlanders meet on Friday.

Both teams have obviously been found wanting throughout the season, and both have only one win in the bag after 10 attempts.

These teams have had remarkably similar seasons. Both looked really competitive at times, and both have scored seven losing bonus points, illustrating how close they have come to victory on numerous occasions.

But in the same breath it must also be said that both teams simply lacked the firepower to compete with the big dogs on a consistent basis.

The one difference between the teams is that the Cheetahs seemed to be more fragile in defence. They played with some fervour at times, but there have been games where they were simply porous.

Last week was a good example of that. The Hurricanes found holes far too easily, and the one-on-one tackling was woeful in many cases. It is that area in which the Cheetahs need to improve substantially.

The  same team will take on the Highlanders this Friday, and coach Naka Drotské will want to make sure his team don't repeat their sub-standard performance.

It would be great to see the Cheetahs wings get the ball in some space since their pace out wide, and especially that of Jongi Nokwe, can cause anybody real problems.

The visitors limitation seems to lie with their backline. They seem rather devoid of attacking verve, and can become rather one-dimensional.

Left wing Fetu'u Vainikolo is the exception here. Vainikolo has proved his worth, and is currently joint top try-scorer in the tournament. He has shown that he possesses exceptional individual ability on attack, and has scored some great tries.

Stormers coach Rassie Erasmus praised the Highlanders for their kicking game in the second half last week. Perhaps the New Zealanders will employ a similar tactic to keep the Cheetahs on the back foot.

They will be without vice-captain Jimmy Cowan, who is rested after a long slog this year.

Cowan's brutal defence will be missed, and the fringe channels around the rucks might be left a little exposed as a result.

The Cheetahs' massive loosies, in the shape of Juan Smith and the imposing Duanne Vermeulen, could take advantage of this, and make hay in these areas with their powerful bursts.

Do not forget Heinrich Brüssow's contributions this season.

The youngster has been one of the Cheetahs' most consistent performers, and he will no doubt be right back in the thick of the breakdown come Friday.

All in all, this match-up could well turn out to be an attractive match between two teams with nothing to lose, and a lot to prove about their ability.

Prediction: The home side are a proud bunch, and their fans will not have enjoyed last weekend's half-hearted efforts and the consequent drubbing by the Hurricanes. They'll want to make things right. Cheetahs by 10 points.

Recent results:
2007: Highlanders won 21-17, Invercargill
2006: Highlanders won 17-12, Bloemfontein

Teams:

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Eddie Fredericks, 13 JW Jonker, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Conrad Barnard, 9 Falie Oelschig, 8 Duanne Vermeulen , 7 Juan Smith (captain), 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Barend Pieterse, 4 Rory Duncan, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Wian du Preez.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Bees Roux, 18 David de Villiers, 19 Hendro Scholtz, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Bevin Fortuin, 22 Hendrik Meyer.

Highlanders: 15 Paul Williams, 14 Matt Saunders, 13 Brett Mather, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Toby Morland, 8 Craig Newby (captain), 7 Tim Boys, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Hoani MacDonald, 3 Clint Newland, 2 David Hall/Jason Macdonald, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.
Replacements: 16 Jason Macdonald/David Hall, 17 Chris King, 18 Hayden Triggs, 19 George Naoupu, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Blair Stewart, 22 Aaron Bancroft.

Referee: Paul Marks (Australia)
Touch judges: Daniel Cheever (Australia), Deon van Blommestein (South Africa)
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)
Assessor: Arrie Schoonwinkel (South Africa)

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