Excitement and tension is mounting as the moment of truth creeps ever closer — one of the closest run Super Rugby tournaments ever is about to reach resolution.

The final opportunity to claim a semifinal spot will beckon for six teams this Saturday, with the Crusaders already assured of a home semifinal.

Of course not every team will have the same chances of progressing. Teams like the Waratahs, Hurricanes and Stormers still have their fate in their own hands.

The 'Tahs and the 'Canes only need to win to advance, while the Stormers need a bonus-point victory to make sure of their progress to the latter stages of the tournament.

Of course there are many other permutations that can see any one of the Sharks, Blues and Chiefs qualify, if results go their way.

The possibilities are so varied — there is even a small possibility of five of the top six teams ending up level on 40 points!

So let's see if we can deduce who will be smiling and who'll be crying after Week 14...

Friday, May 16

Blues vs Hurricanes
Eden Park, Auckland, 7.35pm (7.35am GMT)

First up on this action packed Super rugby weekend, we have a New Zealand derby between two very powerful outfits, both gunning for the play-offs.
 

All I can say is, what a fixture!

Both teams will be going all out for those semi spots, and this could turn into an all-time classic. The Blues seem to have been cured from their mysterious indifference that afflicted them during a large part of the season.

Last weekend's 40-15 demolition of the Highlanders showed that they are almost back to their lethal best. They were simply too good for the hosts, and it could be a nasty omen for the rest of the semifinal hopefuls that the Blues are coming into form at the business end of the competition.

Unfortunately for David Nucifora and his men, that renewed vein of form might have come one week too late, although it could well be too close to call.

The Blues have stuck with the same combination that thumped the Highlanders, and are trying to carry that momentum into the final round.

The Hurricanes are of course in the driving seat. They are currently sitting pretty in second place, and are the team with the largest chunk of their destiny in their own hands.

However, a big loss (11 points or more) could yet see them drop right out of the top four — it's that close!

The 'Canes will also receive a welcome boost via the return of All Black icon Jerry Collins.

Prop Neemia Tialata's suspensions won't hurt them too much, as John Schwalger slots into the numebr one jersey.

"It's probably a bit boring to some people but my main focus as a coach is to try to get winning rugby," said Hurricanes coach Colin Cooper ahead of the crunch clash.

"I think that's what we want to play — structured rugby. I think from structured rugby you'll create space and create flair."

Cooper said he felt that the Blues and Hurricanes had similar strengths with a more balanced all-round game.

"The Blues are coming on really well. They're similar to us, they have firepower everywhere," he said.

"Their scrum and line-outs are really coming to their own and we're the same. I think our stats are very similar, tries are very similar which brings it to a big game [on Friday].

"Doing the little details is going to be the key. The team that does the detail and controls its set piece will have an advantage."

Expect an immense and unpredictable battle in Auckland.

Prediction: The Blues are on the up, but the Hurricanes have been very consistent through the season. This one is just about too close to call, so I'll just go with my gut and say 'Canes by 6 points.

Previous results:
2007: Hurricanes won 23-22, Wellington
2006: Hurricanes won 37-19, Auckland

Teams:

Blues: 15 Nick Evans, 14 David Smith, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Isa Nacewa, 9 Taniela Moa, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Troy Flavell (captain), 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Nick White, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Kurtis Haiu, 19 Justin Collins, 20 Danny Lee, 21 Isaia Toeava, 22 Ben Atiga.

Hurricanes: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Rodney So'oialo (captain), 7 Chris Masoe, 6 Jerry Collins, 5 Jason Easton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Craig Clarke, 19 Scott Waldrom, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Jimmy Gopperth, 22 Tamati Ellison.

Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Jonathon White (New Zealand), Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Television match official: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)

Western Force vs Brumbies
Subiaco Oval, Perth, 7.05pm (11.05am GMT)

This match might not have any bearing on the top four, as both teams have seen their chances of making the semis vanish last week after away losses to the Hurricanes and the Bulls respectively.

The teams will of course have lots of pride to play for in this Aussie derby, especially with quite a few ex-Brumbies now plying their trade for the Perth outfit.

These include vice-captain and talisman Matt Giteau, flanks Scott Fava and David Pusey.

Of course there is always a little extra grudge factor in rivalry between former team-mates, and this will be no exception.

Apart from the pride factor and professionalism, this will however be one of three so-called 'dead rubbers' this weekend - matches of which the outcome will have no bearing to the semifinal spots.

But there is one other factor to consider before dismissing this match, and that is the fact that the Brumbies will be playing their final game under coach Laurie Fisher.

The wild-haired Fisher, who looks more like a Harley Davidson biker than the respected rugby coach that he is, has served the Brumbies very well during his time in charge, and has overseen the first stage of the rebuilding process after losing many stars of a golden generation in the past two years.

Surely the Brumbies will be very emotional and will strive to give Fisher a fitting send-off in his final game after four years in charge.

Coach Fisher commented on the match, and said that the clash was another building block towards the future for his squad.

"It's important to finish the season with a good performance, not only to only end the season on a high but to set the side up for next year," he said.

"Our goal isn't to do anything radically different in our last match and throw the ball around frivolously.

"We have a focus on consolidating on what we've worked on throughout the season and continue developing towards 2009.

"Over the past few weeks we've created a lot of opportunities that we haven't capitalised on.

"We have a mixture of experience within the squad and it's important that we're aware of our decision making and probably show a little more patience when we create those opportunities."

The Force close their season at home with coach John Mitchell making only two changes, in scrumhalf Chris O'Young and prop Pek Cowan.

Their youthful backline gets another run, with James O'Connor (17), Josh Tatupu (21) and Dane Haylett-Petty (18) making up the youngest 12-13-14 combination in the tournament by some distance.

Prediction: The Brumbies midfield will have much more firepower than the Force kids can handle. Ashley-Cooper, Mortlock and Smith will roam free. Brumbies by 12 points.

Previous results:
2007: Brumbies won 14-12, Canberra
2006: Brumbies won 25-10, Perth

Teams:

Western Force: 15 Cameron Shepherd, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Josh Tatupu, 12 James O'Connor, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau (vice-captain), 9 Chris O'Young, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe (captain), 4 David Pusey, 3 Troy Takiari, 2 Tai McIsaac, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 Kieran Longbottom, 18 Sitaleki Timani, 19 Sam Wykes, 20 James Stannard, 21 Scott Daruda, 22 Haig Sare.

Brumbies: 15 Mark Gerrard, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Patrick Phibbs, 8 Stephen Hoiles, 7 George Smith, 6 Mitchell Chapman, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Alister Campbell, 3 Guy Shepherdson, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 Salesi Ma'afu, 18 Peter Kimlin, 19 Julian Salvi, 20 Joshua Holmes, 21 Matt Toomua, 22 Afusipa Taumoepeau.

Referee: Paul Marks (Australia)/Nathan Pearce (Australia)
Touch judges: Ian Smith (Australia), Grant MacNeill (Australia)
Television match official: Geoff Acton (Australia)

Saturday, May 17

Crusaders vs Highlanders
AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 7.35pm (7.35am GMT)

Yet another New Zealand derby takes the stage in this final regular season round of matches, this time between two South Island franchises who have had greatly differing levels of success this year.

What can I say about the Crusaders that hasn't been said this year? They are the log-leaders, the pace-setters, the benchmark, and the first guaranteed home semifinalists.

They have been fantastic in every way this year, with just the one blip on their copybook — a Week 10 defeat to the Chiefs, who were in top form.

That defeat was of course of little consequence to the six-times Super champions, as they strolled untroubled to a first-place finish and a home semi, long before the trailing bunch were getting ready for their last-gasp scrap for the play-offs.

I've said it before, but the most remarkable trait about the Crusaders is their ability to raise their level of performance whenever the situation has called for it.

They are perfectly equipped to give any team in the field a proper hiding when they are on song — just ask the Bulls and the Cheetahs — but they seem to play most of their games in cruise mode, doing only the necessary to win the match, with a bonus point, if the opportunity arises.

The fact that they have faces some tough battles in the past three weeks and still came out on top without some key players, should be of great concern to any upcoming challengers.

The 'Saders are without doubt the clear favourites for the title, especially now that Dan Carter is back from injury.

The Highlanders are the team tasked to topple the illustrious Christchurch outfit this weekend.

The Dunedin-based team are of course not to be underestimated. Despite their limited success this year, they have proved that they are a determined, gritty lot, physically imposing and not scared of a confrontation.

They do lack some finesse at times, but their effort levels usually cannot be faulted.

Scrumhalf Jimmy Cowan has been benched after his recent troubles with the law, with Toby Morland wearing the number nine jersey.

The Highlanders will be itching to show their fellow Kiwis what they are worth, and their fans will be very disappointed if they don't ask the Crusaders some serious questions in this match.

The 'Saders on the other hand will just want to keep the momentum going, and will try to keep their big guns fit for the semifinals. That should be their major concern.

I believe that if the Highlanders throw all they have at the 'Saders, they could sneak a win, purely because the home side need fit and healthy players for the semifinals more than they need a win.

On the other hand, they do have an immensely proud home record at AMI Stadium, having lost only once in 33 matches...

But for some reason or another (let's call it a rush of blood), I have a sneaking suspicion that the Highlanders might want this one a little more than their Red and Black rivals...

Prediction: Records count for very little in the heat of battle, or so we're told by various team captains and coaches, and the 'Saders will have bigger fish to fry. Highlanders to win by 10!

Previous results:
2007: Crusaders won 38-3, Dunedin
2006: Crusaders won 38-15, Christchurch

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Caleb Ralph, 12 Stephen Brett, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richard McCaw (captain), 6 Reuben Thorne, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Kieran Read, 19 Nasi Manu, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Tim Bateman, 22 Casey Laulala.

Highlanders: 15 Mike Delany, 14 Paul Williams, 13 Niva Ta'auso, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Daniel Bowden, 9 Toby Morland, 8 Craig Newby (captain), 7 Tim Boys, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Hayden Triggs, 3 Clint Newland, 2 David Hall, 1 Chris King.
Replacements: 16 Jason Macdonald, 17 Keith Cameron, 18 Isaac Ross, 19 George Naoupu, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Bancroft, 22 Glen Horton.

Referee: Keith Brown (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker (New Zealand), Josh Noonan (New Zealand)
Television match official: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)

Reds vs Waratahs
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 7.40pm (9.40am GMT)

The State of Origin derby couldn't have come at a more poignant time, especially for the Waratahs, who will be parting ways with coach Ewen McKenzie after five years at the helm.

The New South Wales team need to win this very traditional encounter to ensure their passage to the latter stages of the competition.

They currently lie in third place in the log standings, and just like the Hurricanes, their fate lies firmly in their own hands. Win, and they will be through to the semis. Lose, and its most probably the end of the season.

But it will not be easy. This fixture has a ton of history and tradition behind it, and is regarded as the quintessential Aussie derby.

The Reds may not be the same team the were 10 years ago when they were significant contenders for the semifinals. But make no mistake, the rivalry between the Queensland outfit and their NSW neighbours will be as fierce as ever.

Reds skipper Sam Cordingley returns from injury for the Brisbanites, and moves onto the bench. Wing Brando Va'aulu slots into the number 14 jersey in place of the suspended Digby Ioane.

Home ground advantage could be crucial, but if course the Waratahs have so much more at stake in this match than pure pride.

Waratahs coach Ewen McKenzie is another Aussie coach who is coming to the end of his reign with his team, which brings his achievements with the 'Tahs this year into sharp focus, considering that the decision to axe him was made mid-season.

For that reason, the emotions for McKenzie's final State of Origin clash in charge of the 'Tahs will be flowing stronger than ever.

McKenzie illustrated the historical ferocity and importance of the clash to rugbyheaven.com.au, and reminisced about his own playing experiences in this fixture years ago.

In 1987, the then 22-year-old McKenzie was flown in as emergency cover at prop for New South Wales, after Mark Hartill fell ill with a virus.

McKenzie joined Eddie Jones and Peter Kay in the front row. All three players were about to play their first state match, against a Queensland front row that was also the Aussie Test front row.

"We were outweighed by about 20kg a man up front, and we took a tight-head," McKenzie recalled.

"I also remember [NSW back row forward] Steve Lidbury smashing half of [Queensland lock] Bill Campbell's teeth out. As a first state occasion, it was great, especially as Queensland had so many of the incumbent Test team, and we beat them.

"And these NSW-Queensland games continue to be special. I enjoyed them as a player and I enjoy them as much now as a coach.

"This Saturday will be no different," McKenzie continued.

"We have shown this year we are able to manage the emotion and the pressure of the occasion.

"We've always fronted up. We have also managed external pressures as well. We've managed a lot of criticism and still been able to perform on the weekend. We won't be sidetracked."

"If we don't win this game our season could be over, and we have a number of departing players and staff members as well.

"Queensland don't have a mortgage on that. We have players leaving. Some have been announced. Some haven't. And it has come to an end for me as well."

If that doesn't get the blood stirring, not much else will.

Prediction: It will most likely be another brutal battle for the bragging rights, but the boys from Sydney have so much more than that at stake. 'Tahs to win by 10.

Previous results:
2007: Waratahs won 26-13, Sydney
2006: Waratahs won 16-12, Brisbane

Teams:

Reds: 15 Clinton Schifcofske, 14 Brando Va'aulu, 13 Morgan Turinui, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Peter Hynes, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 David Croft, 6 Poutasi Luafutu, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Van Humphries, 3 Dayna Edwards, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Coutts.
Replacements: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Rodney Blake, 18 Ed O'Donoghue, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Charlie Fetoai, 22 Caleb Brown.

Waratahs: TBC

Referee: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Touch judges: James Leckie (Australia), Damian Mitchelmore (Australia)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)

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