Both teams have slight changes, but it's hard to see any change to the result of this Tri-Nations match between New Zealand and South Africa as the Tri-Nations caravan moves as far south as it can go and the weather remains miserable.

South Africa has never won a Test at Dunedin's Carisbrook — the venue for this week's showdown. They had a great chance in 1994 when the All Blacks had come off a series defeat to France in New Zealand and a great chance in 2005 when a late Keven Mealamu try won the match for the All Blacks.

The weather may be a bit drier in cold Dunedin than it was in Wellington, which may help the Highveld Springboks, but it will not really be a factor.

What will be a factor is the confidence the All Blacks will take with them in their togbags as they journey south. There were questions asked of them before the Wellington Test. New Zealanders were unsure of them. Now the surge of the nation is a confident one. They know they can win. Knowing they can win has ever been a powerful weapon for the All Blacks — except at World Cups, it seems.

Confidence will set them playing more freely.

The Springboks, on the other hand, have their backs to the wall, which has always been their best starting position. If they can all fight back the way Schalk Burger will, they could cause a surprise.

One selection that may well work for them is that of Percy Montgomery. Well as Conrad Jantjes played in Wellington the Springboks lacked a left boot, in fact any authoritative boot, which Montgomery may well give them. Then if Butch James is over whatever ailment he had in Wellington things may be better for them.

On the other hand the selection of Joe van Niekerk remains a mystery as his contribution to the side is uncertain, and the retention of Luke Watson on the bench seems to have little to do with rugby football.

John Smit's leadership will be missed but there are enough senior players in the team to lift the spirits and Bismarck du Plessis is unlikely to capitulate.

The All Blacks will miss suspended Brad Thorn who takes solidity to the levels of genius, but the inclusion of John Afoa for Greg Somerville will certainly not weaken the All Blacks who will again be expected to dominate the scrums, even without the power of Thorn. The All Blacks have a settled air about them. They are men going about their business with authority.

Players to watch:

For New Zealand: You will again watch/see Dan Carter (New Zealand) who may just be playing the best rugby of his career with great all-round skill and unruffled calm - effortless superiority. You will also watch Ma'a Nonu of New Zealand if he can imitate the bulls of Pamplona and get on the run.

For South Africa: Amongst the Springboks you will again watch/see action man Schalk Burger with all his bustling, reckless energy. Has there even been a rugby player who has given more in his team's cause? And you will also experience that frisson of excitement when the ball is going Bryan Habana's way. He, too, gives his all.

Head to Head: The battle of the Bantams at scrumhalf is always interesting — Andrew Ellis (New Zealand) against Enrico Januarie (South Africa). Then there is an interesting contest in the middle of the scrum — strong Andrew Hore against combatative Bismarck du Plessis. At lock there will again be the contest between two skilled players — emotional Ali Williams of New Zealand and calmer Victor Matfield of South Africa, two top men with skills locks rarely possess. It is also interesting to see what happens at outside centre where Conrad Smith of New Zealand and Adi Jacobs of South Africa meet. In a sense Jacobs won in Wellington because it was his moment of clever skill that ended when Habana scored a try.

Oh, when All Black and Springbok meet it is a head-to-head of 15 against 15, 22 against 22. It is rugby’s greatest contest.

Previous Results in the Tri-Nations:

2008: New Zealand won 19-8, Wellington
2007: New Zealand won 26-21, Durban
2007: New Zealand won 33-6, Christchurch
2006: New Zealand won 35-17, Wellington
2006: New Zealand won 45-26, Pretoria
2006: South Africa won 21-20, Rustenburg
2005: South Africa won 22-16, Newlands
2005: New Zealand won 31-27, Dunedin
2004: New Zealand won 23-21, Christchurch
2004: South Africa won 40-26, Johannesburg
2003: New Zealand won 52-16, Pretoria
2003: New Zealand won 19-11, Dunedin
2002: New Zealand won 41-20, Wellington
2002: New Zealand won 30-23, Durban
2001: New Zealand won 12-3, Newlands
2001: New Zealand won 26-15, Auckland
2000: New Zealand won 25-12, Christchurch
2000: South Africa won 46-40, Johannesburg
1999: New Zealand won 28-0, Dunedin
1999: New Zealand won 34-18, Pretoria
1998: South Africa won 13-3, Wellington
1998: South Africa won 24-23, Durban
1997: New Zealand won 35-32, Johannesburg
1997: New Zealand won 55-35, Auckland
1996: New Zealand won 15-11, Christchurch
1996: New Zealand won 29-18, Newlands

Prediction: Of course, opportunities can alter the course of matches, events not necessarily in the hands of the players. That is why predicting the outcome of a match such as this is such folly, but our prediction is victory for the All Blacks by 20 points or more.

Teams:

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Rodney So'oialo (captain), 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Neemia Tialata, 18 Kevin O'Neill, 19 Sione Lauaki, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Leon MacDonald.

South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Gürthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Schalk Brits, 17 Brian Mujati, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 François Steyn, 22 Conrad Jantjes.

Date: Saturday, 12 July
Kick-off: 7.35pm (7.35am GMT)
Venue: Carisbrook, Dunedin
Expected weather conditions: Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain, a high of 14°C dropping to 2°C and a westerly wind of 25 km/h, dropping.
Referee: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Touch judges: James Leckie (Australia), Paul Marks (Australia)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)
Assessor: Michel Lamoulie (France)

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