Are we in for yet another Tri-Nations surprise? There was one at Carisbrook and another in Perth and a third in Sydney. Will this — the encounter between New Zealand and Australia in Auckland on Saturday — be yet another? Wouldn't it be marvellous if it were?

There are lots and lots of questions to ask about this match. Will New Zealand lose three in a row for the first time since 1998? Will the return of Richie McCaw restore All Black zest and confidence? Will the All Blacks be outplayed yet again? Or have Graham Henry and Co had time to sort the ELVs out well enough to avoid being out-thought by Robbie Deans yet again?

Obviously the return of McCaw matters. He just adds so much in strength, energy and confident class to his side. After all the Wallabies have triumphed at the tackle for their two Tests in the series and as a result won well. The victory in tackling and after the tackle produced a comfortable win for a side which got 23 percent of the ball.

Obviously the Wallabies would like to do that again. They probably will not expect to get more of the ball this time but they now have two battle-hardened men to hone in on the tackle — George Smith and Phil Waugh. They must have a great chance against the rusty zeal of McCaw.

But they lost something in losing rugged Rocky Elsom — in ball carrying and in the line-outs. It's harder to be clever at line-outs with the opposition able to put in as many as they like, which may limit Wallaby options to Nathan Sharpe and James Horwill, at two and four. The All Blacks have five jumpers — not necessarily a good thrower, but five jumpers.

There is not much change to the two sides except in the New Zealand side. The return of McCaw is a positive step, while the news that scrumhalf Jimmy Cowan and hooker Andrew Hore has been cleared will also boost the Kiwis. There was even uncertainty about McCaw, which is why there was more bracketing on the bench. It smacks of indecision at a time when the All Blacks need decision. They do not need anything to further dilute their confidence. Imagine what a blow to morale it would have been if McCaw did not play.

So the Wallabies have flown down to Auckland on the wings of confidence. The All Blacks have been at home, sour and seething. The Wallabies speed on praise, the All Blacks are sitting ducks for criticism. You would expect the confidence to work better.

Home ground? The tickets for Eden Park did not fly, and the home ground for a top side will not be filled with "my country right or wrong" patriots. Rather wise heads are likely to start shaking sourly if the All Blacks do not climb in quickly and effectively. The fact that the Wallabies have not won there for 22 years is not really relevant; the Springboks had not won at Carisbrook for 87 years and did so this time.

Weather? If the forecast is true and it is wet and windy, that may well suit the more hardened men closer to the Antarctic than the Wallabies used to more comfortable climes. Rain, as has been forecast, will probably suit the All Blacks better.

Third match? This could be a real factor. For the Wallabies it is their third successive match. The Springboks found that sore going in Perth and will brave little Berrick Barnes fancy tackling bulky Ma'a Nonu yet again — for example. The Wallabies may be sore.

But how can things be turned around? The truth is that it need not take much. After all it was no massacre in Sydney - just four tries to three. That's all. But it does mean that some players have got to pull their feet out of the bog of mediocrity — Ma'a Nonu, Rodney So'oialo and Jerome Kaino to start with. Sione Lauaki is gone and Anthony Tuitavake has been plonked on the bench. They were underperfomers. So'oialo and Kaino may be more effective in positions they know better.

It will not take a great deal to turn things around. What needs most is a spirit that enjoys the game, that has heads-up energy. That is the sort of thing that McCaw can do. The All Blacks cannot just stay soggy sour.

It will also need a better kicking game. They have a more reliable goal-kicker in Daniel Carter but they are a tactical kicker short with Nonu at inside centre where the Wallabies have all-rounder Berrick Barnes who has a good boot apart from his other skills. The All Blacks are going to need another big game from Daniel Carter. Big! Their kicking game is going to have to include clearing from defensive positions instead of suicidal passing even if their prime desire is to run. Rain may well demand a more conservative approach.

They will hope that the scrums will stay up more often to give the All Blacks a chance to exert their superiority there.

One more thing: the Wallabies seem to be well ahead in the quality of the bench. They have players on the bench capable of making a real impact - Tatafu Polota-Nau, Daniel Vickerman, Hugh McMeniman, Sam Cordingley, Ryan Cross and Drew Mitchell where New Zealand's bench is made up[ of "in case" players — players there to take over in case of injury but none really able to make an impact on the game.

Players to Watch: First there is Daniel Carter (New Zealand). So much will depend on him. In Sydney he was brilliant — almost too much so as Ma'a Nonu and the loose forwards could not profit from his genius. You will watch Richie McCaw and his battle against George Smith and Phil Waugh. You will watch all three. There are the players who produced great moments last week and who will certainly heighten excitement whenever the ball heads their way — Sitiveni Sivivatu, Lote Tuqiri and Mils Muliaina.

Head to Head: From 15 to one there will be enthralling match-ups. These are two immensely talented teams with a huge amount to play for. An interesting one will be at outside centre — Conrad Smith against Stirling Mortlock. Will Smith hold Mortlock if the Wallaby captain starts ploughing up the field? Will Smith beat Mortlock on the outside. There is the contest between the flyhalves. Last week Daniel Carter beat Matt Giteau with the ball in hand but Giteau won the battle of the boot. In the pack there is going to be the scrap between Richie McCaw and Smith-'n-Waugh, and when there are scrums there will be the bull against bull contest between the front ows.

Previous Tri-Nations results:

2008: Australia won 34-19 at ANZ Stadium, Sydney
2007: New Zealand won 26-12 at Eden Park, Auckland
2007: Australia won 20-15 at Cricket Ground, Melbourne
2006: New Zealand won 34-27 at Eden Park, Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 13-9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2006: New Zealand won 32-12 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2005: New Zealand won 34-24 at Eden Park, Auckland
2005: New Zealand won 30-13 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: Australia won 23-18 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: New Zealand won 16-7 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2003: New Zealand won 21-17 at Eden Park, Auckland
2003: New Zealand won 50-21 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: Australia won 16-14 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: New Zealand won 12-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2001: Australia won 29-26 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2001: Australia won 23-15 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2000: Australia won 24-23 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2000: New Zealand won 39-35 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
1999: Australia won 28-7 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
1999: New Zealand won 34-15 at Eden Park, Auckland
1998: Australia won 27-23 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
1998: Australia won 24-16 at Cricket Ground, Melbourne
1997: New Zealand won 36-24 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
1997: New Zealand won 33-18 at Cricket Ground, Melbourne
1996: New Zealand won 32-25 at Lang Park, Brisbane
1996: New Zealand won 43-6 at Athletic Park, Wellington

Prediction: It is likely to be hard and close — harder and less flowing than it was in Sydney. Small things can always turn a match — Daniel Carter gets crocked, a bounce suits Mils Muliaina. In the wet when scores also shrink, small things can have great pith and moment. Because we have to make a prediction we say the All Blacks by five or more.

Teams:

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Anthony Tuitavake..

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Phil Waugh, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Daniel Vickerman, 19 Hugh McMeniman, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Drew Mitchell.

Date: Saturday, 2 August
Kick-off: 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Expected weather conditions: Rain, clearing slightly in the evening, a high of 16°C dropping to 12°C and a northeaster of 25 km/h freshening to 46 km/h
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Touch judges: Craig Joubert (South Africa), James Bolabiu (Fiji)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

AFP