Preview: S14 - Round 13, Part One
Posted Thu, 08 May 2008

Only two matches remain before the long wait is over, and the semifinalists of Super 14 2008 are identified.

Only one team is assured of a semifinal at this stage, and that is the runaway leaders, the Crusaders.

Not only have they assured a semifinal spot two rounds before the completion of the round-robin phase, their points tally of 47 means that they are have also clinched a home semifinal.

Only the Waratahs (37 points) have the slightest of mathematical chances of catching the Christchurch outfit.

Week 13 could yet prove to be unlucky for some, with as many as eight teams (not counting the Crusaders) still in the running for the other three playoff spots.

The teams have entered the 'last chance saloon' some time ago. One mistake now could ruin the entire season.

So let's look at who could be going big, and who could be going home this weekend!

Friday, May 9

Hurricanes v Western Force
Westpac Stadium, Wellington, 19.35 (07.35 GMT)

The Hurricanes will be smelling blood in this encounter against the Force at their home base in Wellington.

The 'Canes can move very close to a semifinal spot with victory against the Force, while the visiting team only has a very slim chance left to qualify for a top four spot.

The problem for the Force is that their team has been ravaged by injuries after their narrow win over the Chiefs last week in Perth.

Wing Nick Cummins and centre Ryan Cross are long-term casualties after suffering a broken leg and a fractured cheekbone respectively. Scott Fava also damaged an ankle, while Pek Cowan dislocated a thumb, ruling them out of the match as well.

These new injuries can be added to a long list of long-term absentees which include Scott Staniforth (knee),Tamati Horua (knee), Pat O'Connor (knee), Junior Pelesasa (knee), James Hilgendorf (hamstring) and Tom Hockings (shoulder).

This has forced the Perth franchise into some emergency reshuffling, and while Richard Brown adds more than adequate cover for Fava in the back row, it is the backline of the Force that suddenly looks extremely vulnerable.

The Force backline will see 17-year-old James O'Connor, 21-year-old Josh Tatupu, and 18-year-old Dane Haylett-Petty line up outside Matt Giteau.

It is clear that there is a distinct 'green' feel to the outside backs, and they will undoubtedly be facing the biggest challenge of their careers in stopping the deadly All Black duo of Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith, not to mention wing Hosea Gear, who has been very impressive this season.

The 'Canes must be licking their lips after seeing such a young and inexperienced backline, and they will certainly be itching to run hard at that youthful trio.

It can be argued that the very mobile Force loose forward trio could provide some defensive assistance to the outside backs, but they will have their hands full already with their own opposite numbers - Rodney So'oialo, Scott Waldrom and Chris Masoe are well worth some serious attention of their own.

Captain Rodney So'oialo will play his 35th match as Hurricanes captain and equal Tana Umaga's record of most matches as Hurricanes skipper. So'oialo’s record in charge of the Hurricanes is 23 wins, 10 losses and one draw from 34 matches.

The 'Canes have chosen to continue the good work that young starlet Willie Ripia has done at pivot. He keeps the experienced Jimmy Gopperth on the bench, no mean feat for the young man.

Zac Guildford also keeps his place in the team after catching the eye in his last few games. Guildford has also been quietly chalking up tries to his name.

The bottom line is that the Force big guns will have to call on all their experience if they are to salvage this one.

The likes of Giteau, Mitchell and Shepherd will have to take every opportunity they can, otherwise it could well turn into an 80-minute nightmare in the cauldron of Waikato Stadium.

Prediction: There is no way that the Hurricanes will allow such an under-strength Force side to derail their semifinal aspirations. Expect Nonu and co. to smash the midfield channels all day long, and expect a few 'Maori sidesteps' in that area. 'Canes by 15.

Recent results:
2007: Force won 18-17, Perth
2006: Hurricanes won 29-5, New Plymouth

Teams:

Hurricanes: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Rodney So'oialo (captain), 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Chris Masoe, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Neemia Tialata.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliott, 17 John Schwalger, 18 Craig Clarke, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Jimmy Gopperth, 22 Tamati Ellison.

Western Force: 15 Cameron Shepherd, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Josh Tatupu, 12 James O'Connor, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau (vice-captain), 9 James Stannard, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe (captain), 4 David Pusey, 3 Troy Takiari, 2 Tai McIsaac, 1 Gareth Hardy.
Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 Kieran Longbottom, 18 Sitaleki Timani, 19 Sam Wykes, 20 Chris O'Young, 21 Scott Daruda, 22 Haig Sare.

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Touch judges: Marius Jonker (South Africa), Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Television match official: Gareth Williamson (New Zealand)

Bulls v Brumbies
Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, 19.10 (17.10 GMT)

It has been a strange old Bull this season in the Loftus Versfeld kraal.

The team this season has taken on the characteristics of an ageing rogue elephant bull, removed from its herd and wondering aimlessly on a solo mission, a pitiful, depleted and isolated figure.

But underestimate its power at your peril. If angered, that same bull can wake from its slumber instantly and wreak destructive havoc, just as it did in its heyday. Exactly like the Pretoria-based rugby franchise.

The intriguing part of the Bulls season has been their unpredictability.

Of course their have been many mitigating factors in their demise. Loss of key players, loss of legendary coaches and management staff and distasteful contract disputes have undermined the solidarity that took the Bulls all the way to the Championship last season.

But every time they have been under pressure this year, they seemed to come up with enough determination and grit to force a result in their next fixture.

The Brumbies are in a spot of bother themselves after their loss to the Stormers last weekend.

They now have to pick themselves up in the knowledge that their semifinal hopes pretty much exist only in a mathematical sense.

They currently stand on 28 points, and even if they do get the maximum of ten points from their remaining two matches, they will still need other teams ahead of them in the table to lose one or both remaining ties.

The home side welcome back their talisman and captain, Springbok scrumhalf Fourie du Preez, which will be a bog boost for them. Fellow Boks Pierre Spies and Bryan Habana have also recovered from knocks, giving the team a solid look from No.8 outwards.

Morné Steyn retains the flyhalf position after a steady performance last week and Derick Hougaard's injury.

The Brumbies will hand 18-year-old wing Afusipa Taumoepeau his Super 14 debut. The youngster will be another to be dumped straight into the fire as he will have to cope with the physical attention of JP Nel, as well as the guile of Bok wing Akona Ndungane.

The Canberra franchise also welcome back some much-needed reinforcements such as John Ulugia, Guy Shepherdson, Mitchell Chapman and Joshua Holmes.

Coach Laurie Fisher looked ahead to the match with caution.

"The Bulls showed last week what a formidable opponent they are, particularly at Loftus [Versfeld], against a strong Tahs side," said the Brumbies coach.

"We know they have a big, physical pack and a number of fast outside backs, so our challenge is to ensure we match them physically at the set piece and the breakdown, convert our opportunities and don't give their Habanas and Ndunganes any space.
 
"There is a lot of pride and motivation within this [Brumbies] squad and everyone is committed to finishing the season on a positive note over the next two weeks."

Prediction: The Brumbies will have to accept that their realistic chances of making the semifinals have gone. The hostile Loftus environment will be a bridge too far. Bulls to win by 10.

Recent results:
2007: Bulls won 19-7, Canberra
2006: Brumbies won 27-21, Pretoria

Teams:

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JP Nel, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez (captain), 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Wikus van Heerden, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Derick Kuün, 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Rayno Gerber, 18 Jaco Engels, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Francois Hougaard, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

Brumbies: 15 Mark Gerrard, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Afusipa Taumoepeau, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Joshua Holmes, 8 Stephen Hoiles, 7 George Smith, 6 Mitchell Chapman, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Alister Campbell, 3 Guy Shepherdson, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: TBC

Referee: Steve Walsh (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Vinny Munro (New Zealand), Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)

Saturday, May 10

Highlanders vs Blues
Carisbrook, Dunedin, 19.35 (07.35 GMT)

Another New Zealand derby looms, this time between the North Islanders from Auckland and the South Islanders from Dunedin.

Highlanders scrumhalf Jimmy Cowan returns for this match, along with four other changes to the team.

The tough-tackling No.9 said a few weeks ago in Cape Town that he didn't view the tie as a grudge match, but surely the Highlanders will take plenty of satisfaction if they could slay the once-might Blues and finally kill off their semifinal hopes for this season.

He will undoubtedly bring some much-needed impetus and aggression to the home side, something they have relied on for most of the season. One only has to look at pictures of Cowan's messed-up face and head in the match against the Bulls to see just how hard he plays the game.

The Blues seem to have woken from a long slumber last week against the Reds.

They suddenly discovered the penetrative power that made them the team to watch in the first three rounds, and cruised comfortably past the Reds last week to keep their play-off dreams alive.

If the Blues have really just woken up, then Anthony Tuitavake has been their alarm clock. Credit to coach David Nucifora for converting the wing to outside centre, but to be honest, he might as well have tried anything to get his massively underperforming side firing.

Tuitavake has been brutal in attack. He is a player with a low centre of gravity that seems to run at his fastest when there is a possibility of a head-on collision with an opponent.

He has been direct and forceful in the Blues midfield, and a major reason for the win in Brisbane.

His conversion to centre has also meant competition for places in the No. 12 and 13 jersey. Suddenly All Black star 'Ice' Toeava finds himself unable to command a spot in the starting XV, with Benson Stanley returning to inside centre.

Just the kind of thing Nucifora needs to get that extra spark back into his players.

Another switch that has worked well for the Blues has been the positional swap of flyhalf and fullback.

Harlequins-bound Nick Evans retains the No.15 jersey while Isa Nacewa stays at pivot - this combo seems to have yielded far more creativity for the Aucklanders in recent weeks.

There are some injury concerns for the Blues though, with skipper Troy Flavell (hamstring) and prop and fellow All Black Tony Woodcock (foot) due to undergo late fitness tests.

This match could well throw up some sparks, considering the Blues' return to some semblance of form, and the fact that they are still in the hunt for the play-offs.

The battle of the packs will be rather tasty. The Highlanders may be unfashionable, but their forwards are a really massive bunch of blokes that will certainly match the All Black-riddled Blues pack in the physical stakes.

Expect the Blues to throw everything at their hosts, and expect more hard running from a Blues backline that seems to be recovering the marbles they lost somewhere in March.

Prediction: The Highlanders will be their gritty selves on defence, and will front up well in the first half. But the Blues have got bigger fish to fry, and will step things up. Blues by 10 points.

Recent results:
2007: Blues won 28-9, Auckland
2006: Highlanders won 25-13, Dunedin

Teams:

Highlanders: 15 Paul Williams, 14 Glen Horton, 13 Aaron Bancroft, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Craig Newby (captain), 7 Alando Soakai, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Hoani MacDonald, 3 Clint Newland, 2 Jason MacDonald, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.
Replacements: 16 David Hall, 17 Chris King, 18 Isaac Ross, 19 Steven Setephano, 20 Toby Morland, 21 Daniel Bowden, 22 Niva Ta'auso.

Blues: 15 Nick Evans, 14 David Smith, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Isa Nacewa, 9 Taniela Moa, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Troy Flavell (captain)/Kurtis Haiu, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock/Nick White.
Replacements: 16 Nick White/Tom McCartney, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Kurtis Haiu/Bryn Evans, 19 Justin Collins, 20 Danny Lee, 21 Isaia Toeava, 22 Ben Atiga.

Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker (New Zealand), Keith Brown (New Zealand)
Television match official: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)

Reds vs Crusaders
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 19.40 (09.40 GMT)

This game is somewhat of a dead rubber, with the Crusaders already qualified for a home semifinal, and the Reds unable to progress in the tournament.

Of course the Reds are at home in front of their fans in Brisbane, and pride will be enough reason for them to go all out to claim another scalp in what has been a much-improved season.

The Crusaders go into this match with a few interesting posers for coach Robbie Deans.

Having qualified already for the knock-out stages, should he rest his key players and protect them from injury ahead of the play-offs? Or should he keep the continuity going in his first-choice combinations, and play a full-strength side?

It is a tricky question, whichever way one looks at it. It is a potential banana skin of note for Deans - should the Crusaders lose in the semifinal or the Final, many 'pundits' will undoubtedly look back at the last two round-robin games and pin Deans's team selection as one of the reasons for their demise.

The point is that if Deans plays his full-strength side, they'll keep momentum going, but if one of the big guns like McCaw or Brett gets injured, people will say he should have rested them.

If Deans takes the other option and rests the big names, he could fall into the trap that Graham Henry and the 2007 All Blacks fell into - the team could lose its rhythm after two weeks without their first-choice combinations, and turn up stone cold in the semifinals.

Either way, Deans is an astute and decorated coach who will do what he thinks is best, and more often than not, that thinking has got his team to the top of the pile.

The Reds have their talisman back, in the shape of fullback Chris Latham. He has been their driving force this year and has been outstanding for them at times.

Every game that the Reds have won (or even drawn), have been largely influenced by Latham. It's hard to imagine another single player that has such a profound influence on their team's performance and results.

His inclusion shifts Clinton Schifcofske to the right wing, with Peter Hynes on the left wing, and the preferred centre pairing of Turinui and Barnes rounding off a solid-looking backline for the Reds.

The one surprise is that there is no space in the starting line-up for the energetic Digby Ioane, who has to be content with a spot on the bench.

Prediction: Despite the fact that they have already qualified for the semis, the men from Christchurch will have way too much ammo for the Reds. 'Saders by 22 points.

Recent results:
2007: Crusaders won 33-22, Christchurch
2006: Crusaders won 47-21, Brisbane

Teams:

Reds: 15 Chris Latham, 14 Clinton Schifcofske, 13 Morgan Turinui, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Peter Hynes, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 David Croft, 6 Poutasi Luafutu, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Van Humphries, 3 Dayna Edwards, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Coutts.
Replacements: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Ed O'Donoghue, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Digby Ioane, 21 Brando Va'aulu, 22 Charlie Fetoai.

Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ross Filipo, 4 Brad Thorn,3 Greg Somerville, 2 Ti'i Paulo, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 George Whitelock, 20 Andrew Ellis, 21 Daniel Carter, 22. Caleb Ralph.

Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Touch judges: Petri Bosch (South Africa), Shaun Moore (Australia)
Television match official: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)

By Phil Coetzer