One can always gauge a Springbok squad announcement by the reaction of the public and the media.

And, judging by the reaction from Saturday night — when Peter de Villiers announced his first training squad, it is safe to assume that most people out there seem quite happy.

Personally, I think De Villiers has got it spot on and what's even better is that he has not selected anybody to please the politicians, he has gone about things in his own way and according to Springbok rugby's needs.

It must also be remembered that this is a training squad only — it is not a Test match squad, so no caps will be handed out for simply attending a Bok training camp. At the same time, however, it is a huge honour to be involved with the Springboks in one capacity or another and the likes of Heini Adams, Isma-eel Dollie and Earl Rose can only become better players for it.

Dollie is someone that De Villiers has worked with extensively at age-group level and the coach knows what he has in this player. What De Villiers now wants is to see how his charge will do in the company of better players and learning from the likes of Butch James and Percy Montgomery.

Speaking of Butch and Percy, bringing back those four guys from Europe — John Smit and Victor Matfield are in this group, too — could prove to be a masterstroke of note by De Villiers.

Consistency in selection is very important, as Jake White showed during his tenure. Smit, Matfield, James and Montgomery might not be around come 2011, but De Villiers feels they are important to the Bok cause now and their presence will allow the next best players to make an easier transition into Test-match rugby.

Most of the World Cup-winning squad has been retained and having read through the 42-man squad on numerous occasions, I cannot seem to think of any high-profile casualties.

Also, the Sharks guys will come into it when their Super 14 commitments are over and expect to see the usual suspects — the Du Plessis brothers, BJ Botha, Johann Muller and Ruan Pienaar. I also want to see Frans Steyn, Waylon Murray and JP Pietersen in the mix, despite some of them playing out of position and a lack recent form, whilst guys like Beast Mtawarira, Ryan Kankowski, Jacques Botes and Odwa Ndungane all deserve a crack after some impressive play during the Super 14.

Of course, the true test for De Villiers will come when he whittles down this large group into a 26-or-28-man squad nearer to the Tests against Wales and Italy.

I don't expect to see Dollie or Rose in action against Wales, but the Test against Italy would be a good chance to give those guys a crack. In Dollie's case, there is a huge difference between Vodacom Cup and Test rugby, a Test against the Six Nations champions wouldn't be the best introduction to the pressure-cooker environment of Test-match rugby. A 20-minute cameo against Italy, when you're already 20-30 points up is a different story altogether.

The 22 players that are selected to face Wales should be made up of those World Cup winners who played well in the Super 14 and in Europe, mixed with a few new faces, where necessary.

It will be interesting to see what De Villiers does with Percy Montgomery in terms of a starting role. Conrad Jantjes was magnificent during the Super 14 and I was really impressed with Zane Kirchner, too, but Percy's mere presence will benefit the Boks. You don't just throw away 94 caps and the likes of Jantjes, Kirchner and Rose are all set to benefit from having Monty around.

Looking at this weekend, then, and the Super 14 semifinals, I very nearly got my top four predictions right, with the Stormers dropping out because they did not score four tries. But they did well this season and if Rassie is able to build up his squad a bit more before then, they could just be the team to watch in 2009.

We could easily have had two South African teams in the final four. As things stand now, the Sharks are our only hope, but I think they are with a real chance of making the final.

My semifinal predictions:

CRUSADERS vs HURRICANES:
Saturday, May 24 - 9.35am
Christchurch

On their day, the Hurricanes can beat any side in the world, but they are too unpredictable and rely too heavily on gamebreakers Jerry Collins and Ma'a Nonu.

Collins and Nonu are a handful at the best of times, but like I said last week, rugby is all about combinations and that's where the Crusaders will trump the Hurricanes.

For instance, the 9-10-12 axis of Ellis, Carter and Brett is probably the best in the Super 14, not to mention their loose trio, their front row, their locks and their back three. The 'Canes cannot be expected to beat them with just one brilliant player in each position.

The Crusaders have the best scrum in the competition, one of the best line-out jumpers in Ali Williams and their breakdown skills are basically unmatched in the Super 14. But it's not all about Richie McCaw, the Crusaders' technique at the breakdown is superb and they have that priceless ability to take the ball through phase after phase without raising a sweat - the key to breaking down any defence.

Some people might look to last week's home loss at the hands of the Highlanders, but I don't think that match will have any bearing on the weekend's semifinals.

There was nothing riding on that game — with a home semifinal and final secured — and maybe they just took their foot off the gas as a result. This week, however, is a winner-takes-all semifinal in what could be Robbie Deans's final match for the Crusaders. His players won't take it lightly.

Fleckie's prediction: Crusaders to win and progress to yet another Super 14 Final.

WARATAHS vs SHARKS:
Saturday, May 24 - 12pm
Sydney

A lot depends on whether or not Frans Steyn plays on Saturday.

Regular readers of this column will know just how highly I regard that youngster. He is the best number 12 in the world and the Sharks will be better for it if he lines up at inside centre this weekend.

Brad Barritt did impress me against the Chiefs last Saturday, but they need Steyn in the mix — somewhere in their starting XV — if they are to go to Sydney and beat one of the form sides in the semifinals of the Super 14. They need their best combinations out there.

The 'Tahs, of course, are no pushovers and their forwards have acquitted themselves very well this season. They were particularly impressive against the Stormers in Cape Town, but they will find the Sharks an exceptionally tough nut to crack up front. With Bismarck du Plessis back to form, Johann Muller in the mix and Ryan Kankowski so effective off the base of the scrum, the 'Tahs won't match them up front - even if BJ Botha does not play.

The Waratahs backs are also a worry; they don't have tons of Super 14 experience, whereas most of these Sharks guys actually played in last year's final. Also, the Sharks were brilliant against the Chiefs, who are by no means the weakest backs division in the Super 14, and they seem to be running into form at just the right time.

I am sure Dick Muir will be saying he planned to have his guys peaking now, but whereas the Sharks are getting stronger, the Waratahs tend to crumble when the pressure is on them. They have a history of falling apart in the big games and last week against a below-par Reds team was a case in point.

The pressure is certainly on them this week in a big way, especially in front of an expectant home crowd, and they'll also find themselves up against a very well-drilled Sharks team...

Fleckie's prediction: The Sharks will have a point to prove after last year's final and, like the Crusaders, they will also be saying goodbye to their coach after the Super 14. They wouldn't want it to end with a semifinal loss and it won't - the Sharks to win.

Enjoy the semifinals,
Fleckie

  • Email Fleckie at sports@metropolis.co.za with your Super 14 picks for this week!

  • Fleckie's 'Last Word' will appear weekly on iafrica.com, so log on next week for more Super 14 views and predictions.

    Print this page
    Send this article to a friend
    RSS
       Digg
    de.li.cious
    facebook