Forget my usual maxim of picking a name out of a hat to guess the winner of golf’s next Major; for once, the lottery is replaced by a very simple process of elimination. No Tiger should suggest a wonderfully open (and thus completely unpredictable) tournament; instead, the three majors to date have made calling the 2008 PGA Champion fairly straightforward. Forget form, world ranking, suitability for the Oakland Hills course. Look instead for the guy who’s limping round in practice, and on this year’s evidence, you’ve got your man.

Trevor won at Augusta while still recovering from surgery to remove a benign tumour from his pancreas. Tiger’s leg almost fell off dragging himself round the US Open. And Padraig barely swung a club in the immediate build-up to Birkdale — and proceeded to nail his second Open in a row. It’s professional sport meets ER at the Majors this year, so if the winning putt at the PGA is sunk with a crutch, and the trophy carried home alongside the champion on a stretcher, don’t be surprised.

All money on the unhealthiest individual in sight, then, which means my newly re-valued Zimbabwe dollars are firmly behind John Daly. Past champion means he gets an automatic look-in, but usually little more; this being the Year of the Walking Wounded, all Daly needs is a colourful drinking injury or knife skirmish with one of his ex-wives, and I reckon we have the favourite firmly in place.

Riding against that, of course, is that Daly leading through 54-holes is likely to still be in the bar by the time his fourth round tee-time arrives, which means lining up one or two back-up options. Six foot seven Robert Karlsson walking into a tree, the Goose being struck by lightning, Ernie falling off a jetski — keep trawling the web for golf rumours from Michigan, and you might just get the hot tip that gives you your winning man.

If there’s an air of frivolity to my PGA theory this year, then it’s hardly out of kilter with the rest of golf’s collected pundits: after an Australian pensioner, an injured Irishman and a golfer celebrated for his outfits rather than his game filled the Tiger-sized hole at The Open, it’s anyone’s guess what’ll happen at Oakland Hills this week. Unless the injury turns out to be more serious than Woods has let on, this’ll be the last Major the world number one will miss, upping the ante for the chasing pack to grab one of golf’s big four while Tiger’s away. Which essentially gives you the whole field to gamble with.

As usual, the South African media has jumped cheerfully onto any faintly optimistic suggestion coming out of America this week, with Ernie, unsurprisingly, at the head of the queue. Nine holes at The Open in revolting conditions scuppered the Big Easy’s hopes at Birkdale, but a tie for seventh was more than enough to confirm he’s not only arrested a worrying decline, but is a genuine contender this week.

The older guard will be under particular scrutiny at Oakland Hills, Els joined chiefly by Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh, a winner last week, on the whispered list of favourites in Michigan. Perhaps because their age suggests they’re most threatened by Woods, will drive them a touch harder this week — none of them will end their careers before Tiger calls time on his (injury permitting), and so the chance at a Major this week with no Woods in competition, has an added appeal for the legion of veterans.

Norman’s performance at The Open is an added shot in the arm for the established names; riding against them, the swarm of young stars itching for a breakthrough into the big time — and for the European and American hopefuls, the added incentive of a late charge for Ryder Cup points. Hunter Mahan might not have endeared himself to the game with his Ryder Cup comments in this month’s issue of Golf Magazine, but the rest of the Tour thrives on the contest. Just another dimension for the PGA Championship yet — and another cloud to the crystal ball of predicting a winner.

All of which leaves me firmly entrenched in my theory for the week. ‘Jerry Kelly chops off foot in freak accident’; ‘Rogue asteroid lands on Louis Oosthuizen’s head’; ‘Lee Westwood bitten by rabid tourist’ — the more bizarre, the better the chance, I reckon. That said, it’ll still be an almighty scrap this weekend; with Tiger’s return on the horizon, the battle for this year’s PGA Championship should be particularly furious.

  • Contact Dan at dan@metropolis.co.za

    Print this page
    Send this article to a friend
    RSS
       Digg
    de.li.cious
    facebook