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Taking over from Tito
Article By:
Evan Pickworth
Tue, 02 Sep 2008 17:19
While there could be political sensitivities around a change in central bank governorship, there are enough good candidates within the bank and even if a candidate comes from outside, the committee has shown over the years it can deal with monetary policy.
This is the view of chief economist from Dynamic Wealth, Professor Chris
Harmse, who was reacting to today's report that central bank Governor Tito
Mboweni would bow out when his term of office ended next August.
Harmse noted that Mboweni had effectively said the same thing before.
Harmse gives his vote of confidence to deputy governor, Dr Xolile Guma.
"If Dr Guma takes over it would not be a problem. He is a bright
economist and is well experienced," said Harmse.
He added, though, that a "surprise" candidate like new treasurer
Matthews Phosa could come into the frame.
"We just do not know," he said.
"Polokwaneomics"
He also
pointed out that "polokwaneomics" is something to be factored
in, wherein the ANC has intimated in the aftermath its Polokwane meeting
last year that they call the shots on economic policy, and not the
president.
He thus does not feel the Zuma presidency itself will be viewed that
negatively.
Harmse said that some interesting times do lie in wait as a lot of this
conjecture depends on the role of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) under
a new government, for instance, when it comes to inflation targeting.
"But the central bank has a good management team and the MPC is well
informed," said Harmse, although he did say that some mistakes have been
made in the past. But he added that the Bank had made few mistakes on the
whole.
He also noted that as far as reaction on the financial markets went,
Finance Minister Trevor Manuel had already indicated he would stay on if
asked to by the new executive.
"I think
staying for too long at the head of an organisation might not
be a good idea," Mboweni was quoted as saying by Business Report on Friday.