The resignation of President Thabo Mbeki would not result in major changes in South Africa's macroeconomic policy, ratings agency Fitch said on Monday.

"Key personalities in the cabinet and at the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) seem likely to remain in place, thereby boding well for policy continuity at least until next year's presidential election," Fitch said in a statement.

According to Fitch, the country's outlook was stable.

Manuel confirmation

Fitch said it was important that a spokesperson for the Minister of Finance, Trevor Manuel, had confirmed that he would not be stepping down.

"The Secretary General of the ANC, Gwede Mantashe, is actively encouraging members of cabinet to serve out their term ... The SARB governor's contract is not due for renewal until August 2009 and he has indicated a willingness to serve another term."

Fitch added that although policy debate continued within the ANC, there was unlikely to be any radical shift in economic policies that were determined at the ANC conference in Polokwane last December.

The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement in October might provide the first clues of budget priorities of the next government but the ANC election manifesto, which will be published on 8 January 2009, would give the first detailed signal of policy direction of the new administration going into the election, the ratings agency said.

The February budget would be tabled before the election, which must take place some time between April and July 2009.

Political uncertainty

"The resignation of President Mbeki has added to political uncertainty at a time when the economy faces a challenging global and domestic backdrop.

"The interim president and his or her team will have to carefully manage the transition so as to not worsen already weak investor sentiment and add to macroeconomic risks," Fitch said.

Strong public finances, moderate debt levels, the inflation-targeting regime and South Africa's relatively strong institutions in comparison with its rated peers would be supportive in this regard, Fitch added.

Sapa