The consensus is for South Africa's repo rate to remain unchanged at 12 percent at the conclusion of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB's) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) two-day meeting which gets underway in Pretoria today.

This is according to a survey of 13 leading economists by I-Net Bridge. The MPC's decision on rates will be announced just after 3.00pm on Thursday.

Of the 13 respondents surveyed, a majority of ten felt the repo would remain unchanged, with three predicting a 50-basis-points increase.

Tightening cycle

Most respondents also felt the tightening cycle would be over, but that if another increase happened, then August's increase would mark the end of the cycle.

The MPC increased the repo rate by 50-basis-points to 12.00 percent in June — against a consensus expectation that the increase would measure 100-basis-points after particularly hawkish comments from the central bank governor on 28 May.

With no increase now, the prime overdraft rate would remain at 15.5 percent and the current tightening cycle, which began in June 2006, at 500-basis-points.

SARB Governor Tito Mboweni noted in June that there are major inflationary pressures building up, with the electricity decision weighing heavily. He added that the MPC was mindful of the fact that the economy was responding to the tightening, but that risks to inflationary expectations have deteriorated further.

"The outlook for inflation remains bleak," he said, adding that the risk to the global and domestic economy is seen to be firmly on upside.

He added that price increases are now more broad based.

On 5 August in a speech to Wits business students he said monetary authorities are clearly very concerned about the fact that inflation in South Africa is outside the six percent to three percent target band.

He scotched talk that inflation targeting was not working and should be abandoned, emphasising that it garnered accountability in the management of the economy.

"All of us have to do our bit to bring inflation to within the target band in the medium term," said Mboweni.

Generalised pressures

Mboweni noted that the initial disappointment with inflation had expanded to include more generalised pressures.

"The core inflation rate is still above the upper limit of the inflation target," he said.

However, many commentators feel the inflation level is due to peak soon and that this will be a key consideration by the MPC, as to hike now may not have the desired effect if inflation does indeed peak and come down. Monetary policy operates with a lag to full impact in the economy of around six months.

The repo rose as high as 13.5 percent in September 2002, before receding to seven percent in April 2005, with the current tightening cycle then beginning in June 2006. After a December 2007 50-basis-point hike, the MPC had paused in January.

I-Net Bridge