Investment strategist Peter Lucas presents a refreshingly optimistic take on global events.

Bruce Whitfield:
George Soros talking today about the state of global markets and suggesting the worst is far from over but Peter Lucas is the global investment strategist at Ashburton, in Johannesburg for an investment conference and I get a sense from what I saw that you were saying today Peter, that you are actually a little bit more optimistic than Mr Soros is, good evening.

Peter Lucas:
Good evening Bruce, yes, that is indeed correct. We have held the view throughout much of the credit crisis that the Federal Reserve in America has the tools to turn the economy around and so far, I think the evidence from the economy and from the market is more in our count for the moment.

Bruce Whitfield:
Now what are the catalysts that are causing you to have this optimism when let's face it a lot of the world is feeling a little bleak at the moment?

Peter Lucas:
Absolutely I think the point is that although the Federal Reserve has stabilised the ship to some extent in the States the credit crunch is still unfolding in other parts of the world and similarly although the property bubble has deflated considerably in the States a place like the UK the property market is still pretty high and the chances are there is still more grief to come so I think the rest of the world probably has to catch up a little bit but this is not unusual; America quite often leads places like Europe in the cycle.

Bruce Whitfield:
And what about the threats? I mean here you have got inflation, you have got the oil price, are there safe havens globally at the moment where investors can actually park money, potentially get a return, and hide quite safely?

Peter Lucas:
I think I feel pretty happy with equities from a longer term perspective. I think at the moment talking in terms of threats I think the high oil price is certainly an issue, you know the rising costs of energy and fuel and so forth is offsetting the good work that the monetary authorities are doing to turn the economy around so it would be helpful I think if we were to see a top there. I think my sense on that front is that although there is an underlying demand story there that maybe investment flows from the investment community is distorting the situation and it is driving it above its clearing price and once we get through this phase and hopefully the oil price will come back to more sensible levels.

Bruce Whitfield:
You are in South Africa and you would have seen over the last couple of days, newspaper images, television images, you would have heard on the radio; xenophobia. It has taken a grip in areas around South Africa. From your perspective as a watcher of South African investments what are you reading into that? What do you think it is going to do to our image as a safe haven as an investment destination?

Peter Lucas:
Well clearly it's not good. I mean I was reading in the press that the rand was marked down when all this news started to hit the headlines however it is not unique in the world today. I wouldn't claim to have some sort of insight into the situation but it is quite interesting to note that there are riots going on in a number of countries around the world as a result of the food price inflation that is going on so I wouldn't be at all surprised if that weren't a contributing factor.

Bruce Whitfield:
It just seems we have got so much negativity in South Africa; there is political uncertainty, there is dangerous inflation levels, power supplies are uncertain and now people are beginning to turn on each other. From an investment perspective does that count against us significantly?

Peter Lucas:
Well clearly everything you have mentioned there are negatives so yes by definition they are not helpful for the market.

Bruce Whitfield:
Peter Lucas, thank you very much indeed, investment strategist at Ashburton.