The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) reported on Thursday that its Trade Activity Index remained at 45 in April.

It dropped back to that level in March after recovering to 50 in February.

Although April's level is marginally better than the 44 for the TAI in December 2007, trade conditions remained depressed, SACCI said.

The sub-index on current sales volumes which declined substantially to 44 in March 2008 after a level of 55 in February 2008, recovered slightly to 46 in April 2008. The new orders sub-index dipped slightly from 43 in March 2008 to 42 in April 2008.

After the Trade Expectations Index recovered to 58 in February 2008, it declined to 52 in March 2008 and further to 48 in April 2008. This is the lowest level for the TEI since the inception of the survey in August 2001. The low TEI is a continuation of a downward trend that started in February 2007 and declined from a high 70 in January 2007 to 48 in April 2008 - well into negative territory. The prospects for an improvement in trade conditions appear uncertain and tighter financial conditions could further worsen trade prospects without a definite turning point in sight over the shorter term.

The sub-index on sales expectations further declined to 51 in April 2008 after dipping sharply to 54 in March 2008 from 64 in February 2008. The 51 in April for the sales expectations index is the worse level since the survey started in August 2001. The index on expected new orders declined by a further 5 points to 47 in April 2008 after the notable decline of 8 points in March 2008.

Inflationary pressures remain high. The index on selling prices remained at the 75 of March 2008 – still 15 points above the December 2007 index level. This remains the highest level for the index since the 77 of April 2002. The input price index, after rising in March 2008, dipped slightly to 83 in April, but is still 16 points higher than the 67 in December 2007. Faster rising prices remain a strong possibility over the next six months (survey period) as fuel and food prices continue to climb.

The employment index stayed at 47 in April 2008 while employment prospects in the trade environment remained in negative territory in April 2008 as the index declined further from 48 to 47.

I-Net Bridge