This week will probably see the most important event in the lifetime of many of us.
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Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:26
The short-term catalyst to watch for in terms of the markets improving are the global credit spreads, which are showing the first very tentative signs of easing, says director at Investec Asset Management, Jeremy Gardiner.
"Don't hold your breath, but this may just signal the beginning of
better times ahead," he says.
However, Gardiner cautions that investors should be careful of making
emotional decisions during extraordinary times.
Be wary of emotion
"It is times like these that illustrate clearly (and sometimes
painfully) the benefits of portfolio diversification (or lack thereof). This
is exactly why portfolios should be structured according to the individual
investor's specific risk profiles. For those who sacrificed some of the
upside when times were good, the fact that they were properly diversified
means that the current turmoil – although uncomfortable – shouldn't be too
painful," he says.
"We
have seen expensive bailout packages in both the US and the UK; we
have seen globally synchronised rate cuts and still the selling continues.
A couple of features are driving this. Essentially, the world needs a
coordinated response as soon as possible. Although the US bailout bill went
through, once the politicians were finished with it, it was not as effective
as the package that was first presented. In addition, Hank Paulson is being
accused of making it up as he goes along," adds Gardiner.
"He talks of buying up tarnished assets, but at what price? Then he
talks about taking equity in companies. Although he managed to get the Bill
passed, markets however need clarity on the specifics if they are to believe
in its potential to succeed. The rate cut helps a bit, but won't fix the
problem, as the problem in the world right now is not the price of credit,
but the availability thereof and the willingness of banks to part with any
cash," he says.
Gardiner feels the British rescue bill appears the most effective, as it
addresses three major issues and with large amounts of capital. It addresses
the issues around banks needing capital, it provides liquidity and it
guarantees the short-term debt of banks so that interbank lending can
improve.
Is there any hope left? "Yes," according to Gardiner.
G7 thumbs up
He gives the G7 talks the thumbs up.
"What we need from this is a global response to the crisis, across
America, Europe and Asia. This should include a clearly articulated plan
(along the lines of the British rescue package), across all countries
affected, along with possibly another globally synchronised rate cut,
hopefully emerging by Sunday evening," he says.
Interestingly, the South African financial system is in relatively good
shape.
"In a report issued today by the World Economic Forum, the SA banking
system
ranks 15th in the world, one ahead of Switzerland at 16th, with the
US and the UK not even in the top 20," concludes Gardiner.